Who Practiced? (Prevalence → Test Accuracy → Posterior Belief)

Who Practiced? (Prevalence → Test Accuracy → Posterior Belief)

Controls

Left group label

Right group label

Sample size (N)

Prevalence: P(Left group)

Sensitivity: P(Positive | Left)

Specificity: P(Negative | Right)

Show numeric callouts

Counts are pinned to slider values (rounded). Which observations land in TP/FN/FP/TN is random each resimulate.

Legend

TP true positive

FN false negative

FP false positive

TN true negative

1) Population (Prevalence)
2) Apply Test (TP/FN/FP/TN)
3) Only Positives (Posterior)
4) Same BF, Different Prevalence
5) Bayes Factor (Odds Update)